A sometimes repetitive but generally useful manual on introducing cost-benefit analysis to decision-making. "We need an effective intellectual framework for thinking about thinking--an approach to the world that acknowledges complexity and uncertainty but can nonetheless help us make the best possible decisions," writes Rubin, a former Treasury secretary and Goldman Sachs executive. There's a lot packed into that suggestion, for acknowledging that complexity and uncertainty involves introducing risk analysis into decisions of import, which entails probabilistic thinking (What are the chances this is going to fail?), which involves the old economists' trick of cost-benefit analysis, which circles back to risk. One does all this, Rubin counsels, by means of a yellow legal pad, a metaphor for any means of listing possible outcomes for reckoning honestly with key questions: "How do you make judgments about the probabilities? How do you consider trade-offs when priorities conflict? And how do you deal with potential scenarios that can't be expressed in numerical terms?" Rubin is a qualitative thinker, but he admits that some qualitative assessment boils down simply to gut reactions. Though he belabors certain points, he makes subtle arguments about the dangers of, for instance, assuming that low risk means no risk and the desirability of leaders who care less about whether they're popular than whether they make their best effort to get things right. In that regard, he branches out to leadership style, notably Bill Clinton's, who was inclined to make decisions while taking a wide range of opinions that weren't necessarily weighted toward the seniority of the person offering them. That approach relies on "embracing human complexity: recognizing and engaging with the inherent strengths, weaknesses, and motivations of individuals, and then working to give them the best chance to succeed." And never skip the important step of asking "foundational questions." With intellectual heft and plenty of actionable items, this is a smart prescription for better thinking. Copyright (c) Kirkus Reviews, used with permission.

Evaluating probability is key to navigating the complexities and uncertainties of modern life, contends Rubin (In an Uncertain World), former U.S. Treasury Secretary and cochairman of Goldman Sachs, in this earnest if flawed offering. He shares how he's made major professional decisions by writing on a yellow legal pad "a list of possible outcomes in one column, and my estimated odds of each outcome occurring in the other," and then choosing the option promising the greatest reward at the highest probability. Recognizing how biases influence decision-making is crucial, he argues, noting how his awareness of his risk aversion enables him to compensate for when he overweighs risk in his tabulations. However, the yellow pad approach sometimes gets dropped in favor of dubiously relevant anecdotes from Rubin's career, such as when he recounts adopting a more supportive stance toward his colleagues to make the jump from arbitrage to management at Goldman Sachs, a change that had little to do with navigating uncertainties. Additionally, the dry prose dulls the impact of stories from the author's extraordinary career (even an account of a Goldman Sachs partner's arrest for insider trading falls flat). Torn between a standard business memoir and a broader program for navigating uncertainty, this struggles to find its footing. (May)